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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still