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PHEVs produce almost 5x greater global warming pollution than official data indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Lab and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics shows that PHEVs emit only 19% less CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, based on analysis conducted by a non-profit group. This contrasts significantly with lab tests, which assumed a 75% reduction in pollution.

Analysts examined data from in-vehicle energy use meters of 800,000 cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than lab figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are rising, while official emissions are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst involved in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and poses a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs pollute almost as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Key Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers attributed the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of miles travelled in battery power compared to overall mileage. They determined that only a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, while lab estimates suggested 84%.

Even, when operating in EV mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than lab estimates. That happened because electric motors were not strong sufficient to operate independently, resulting to engines burning fossil fuels for nearly a third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions enabled several major carmaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs could spend about €500 more annually in operating costs than is estimated under lab tests.

“The bold statements that automakers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are clearly way off the mark,” commented a automotive expert. “Consumers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the environment and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are little better than regular petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ production, and operating expenses.”

Political Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought again into policy debates as carmakers have lobbied the EU to relax CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and resistance from member states with large automotive manufacturing.

Some high-level politicians have suggested PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” solution to introduce in the legislation.

One independent energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the analysis a “very useful addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive industry argued there was insufficient information to accurately assess real-world emissions.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap between lab and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for gasoline or conventional cars,” the expert said. “Any policy changes concerning PHEVs should be made with extreme care and considering that data.”